Early March Market Update

Dated: 03/23/2018

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March 1 - January saw much stronger single-family permit counts than last year. The Census Bureau reports 1,613 units across Maricopa and Pinal County, up 21% and the highest January total since 2007.

Big totals came in from:

  1. Phoenix - 326

  2. Buckeye - 161

  3. Unincorporated Pinal County - 124

  4. Gilbert - 121

  5. Peoria - 116

  6. Maricopa - 110

  7. Unincorporated Maricopa County - 106

March 2 - Multi-family permits were very strong in January, almost entirely thanks to a huge project in Tempe. We have 1,300 multi-family units year-to-date which is the second highest total in history. 2006 remains the record holder with 1,322.

March 4 - Prices are moving upwards faster than last year or 2016. The rate of appreciation, based on the annual average price per square foot across all areas & types within the ARMLS database, reached 7% on March 3, 2018. The last time we saw an overall number of 7% or more was in February 2015, when the appreciation rate was declining fast.

Now it is has been on a clear upward trend since November 2017.

Previous periods where appreciation has exceeded 7% were:

  • April 2004 to Feb 2007 (bubble rise and fall)

  • July 2012 to Feb 2015 (rebound after the collapse)

Overall appreciation rates over 7% are abnormal and we, therefore, need to monitor the market closely for signs of over-heating.

The Cromford Market Index™ (CMI) is a single value that indicates the balance of the residential resale market. Values below 100 indicate a market that favors buyers. Values above 100 indicate a market that favors sellers. A value of 100 is equally balanced.

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